Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 15.734576 17.954672 20.355667 23.142703 26.286291 29.719689 33.751221
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.029290 14.918088 18.288571 22.501667 27.616914 33.615666 41.173224
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 10.368783 13.559195 17.465104 22.580583 29.083995 37.054784 47.542163
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 9.209434 12.620904 16.978236 22.922953 30.789840 40.807634 54.491042
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 8.261530 11.793679 16.474293 23.089762 32.151716 44.075638 60.891242
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 7.362859 10.914422 15.782933 22.890566 32.938355 46.559191 66.331848
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 6.744990 10.348121 15.441903 23.100059 34.238534 49.747973 72.854144
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.370082 10.086096 15.489794 23.834577 36.289840 54.059133 81.160310
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 5.784340 9.446143 14.919935 23.596702 36.877109 56.274460 86.536540
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.033275 8.477422 13.769404 22.378659 35.887985 56.083405 88.301636
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.786146 8.283022 13.787203 22.947381 37.636729 60.044233 96.490240
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.565350 8.108963 13.816772 23.523716 39.414481 64.123293 105.055197
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.187608 7.646955 13.357332 23.294266 39.920661 66.301000 110.852800
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.804844 7.142345 12.787466 22.837032 40.018717 67.828530 115.693750
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.546497 6.831715 12.516451 22.853708 40.885621 70.615932 122.693152
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.369640 6.651918 12.455216 23.221506 42.359816 74.466298 131.638392
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.176129 6.423258 12.287506 23.383087 43.475286 77.758654 139.795360
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.947443 6.107130 11.936056 23.183928 43.931435 79.935568 146.133473
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.795172 5.925324 11.816201 23.395129 45.125142 83.432730 154.919704
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.722799 5.895476 11.977859 24.138754 47.327296 88.803120 167.266453
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.534437 5.613943 11.635988 23.897926 47.680177 90.880356 173.801790
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.248743 5.105436 10.812880 22.665253 46.077832 89.318279 173.620057
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.183902 5.059120 10.904963 23.240817 47.973455 94.270629 185.676929